融合TSO-GPR模型的导电滑环确信可靠性建模与评估

Belief reliability modeling and evaluation of conductive slip rings using an integrated TSO-GPR model

  • 摘要: 太阳电池阵导电滑环的可靠性直接关乎卫星的寿命。针对传统解析模型难以准确描述滑环磨损与可靠性间复杂非线性关系的难题,文章基于导电滑环地面磨损试验的数据,提出采用金枪鱼群优化高斯过程回归(TSO-GPR)的人工智能模型,构建磨损率与导电滑环簧片压力和刷块材料硬度的映射关系作为学科交叉方程,进而建立综合考虑多种参数不确定性的确信可靠性模型。试验验证数据表明,相较于GPR模型,TSO-GPR模型预测的RMSE和MAE指标均下降约2个数量级,泛化预测能力显著提升,可支撑导电滑环寿命的准确预测。另外,通过敏感性分析可知,相比于簧片压力,刷块材料硬度对导电滑环可靠度的影响更大,这可为高可靠导电滑环的设计提供参考。

     

    Abstract: The reliability of conductive slip rings, which are key components of the solar array drive assembly (SADA), is critical to the satellite’s service life. Traditional analytical models struggle to characterize the complex nonlinear relationship between slip-ring wear and reliability. To address this issue, an artificial intelligence model integrating Tuna Swarm Optimization and Gaussian Process Regression (TSO-GPR) was proposed and trained using ground wear test data. An interdisciplinary equation was established to map the wear rate to the reed pressure and the hardness of the brush block material, and a belief reliability model was subsequently developed to account for uncertainties from multiple parameters. Validation results indicated that the TSO-GPR model reduced the root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) by approximately two orders of magnitude compared to the conventional GPR model, demonstrating significantly improved predictive accuracy and generalization capability for conductive slip-ring life prediction. Furthermore, sensitivity analysis revealed that the hardness of the brush block material had a greater influence on reliability than the reed pressure. These findings provide a useful reference for the design of high-reliability conductive slip rings.

     

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